Hi fellow TPW citizens… looks like it was UST weakness that freaked out the WH and led to a Trumpian blink that as only Trump can flipped markets to the tune of the SPY up 6% and Nasdaq up 7% as I write.
We have been busy here in the Tri Polar World hosting our first monthly zoom for founding members this morning - you can always mash that upgrade button and join the fun - some great questions from our founders in an hour long interactive zoom session.
Yesterday morning we had the opportunity to hop back on Yahoo Finance and made the point that all this tariff noise should not distract from the underlying reality of a Trump Presidency which is that the US is withdrawing unilaterally from the rest of the world, doing immense self harm in the process while serving as an accelerant to deeper integration in Europe & Asia. Its an own goal of epic proportions.
We expect continued USD weakness as Act 2 of the Trump premiers, the tax cut. We expect the focus will include even bigger US budget deficits and more UST issuance, issuance fewer foreign investors ( post Act 1) will be interested in buying thus keeping US rates high and economic growth low.
As we have said for some time now we expect capital repatriation OUT of the US and back into Europe, Asia and EM in the months and quarters ahead, supporting the leadership shift in global equity away from the US to the ROW.
We want to sell US equity rips and buy non US equity dips.
Opening this up as a freebie. Enjoy the Yahoo Finance clip.